ECB Shadow Council
Council Expects Tapering Signal in September, Barring Political Risks

The ECB Shadow Council broadly expects the central bank to communicate its tapering intentions in September at the latest and begin formally reducing its asset-purchasing program in 2018.

Berlin/FrankfurtThe ECB Shadow Council broadly expects the central bank to communicate its tapering intentions in September at the latest and begin formally reducing its asset-purchasing program in 2018. Some members argued heightened political risks should keep the program going for longer.

Inflation and Growth forecasts revised significantly upwards
Compared to three months ago, members raised the inflation forecast from an average of 1.3 to 1.7 percent this year. This is above the ECB’s staff projections from December of 1.3 percent. For 2018, the forecast has also been revised slightly upwards from 1.4 to 1.5 percent.

The Shadow Council’s mean...

 
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