Die Stellungnahme von EZB-Präsident Trichet im Wortlaut

Die Dokumentation der einleitenden Bemerkungen des obersten Währungshüters der Europäischen Union zum aktuellen Zinsbeschluss im Wortlaut.

„Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to today's press conference. Let me report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister Juncker, and Commissioner Almunia.

At today's meeting, we decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. This decision reflects the upside risks to price stability over the medium term that we have identified through both our economic and monetary analyses. Today's decision will contribute to ensuring that medium to longer- term inflation expectations in the euro area remain solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting sustainable economic growth and job creation in the euro area. After today's increase, our monetary policy continues to be accommodative, with the key ECB interest rates remaining at low levels, money and credit growth strong, and liquidity in the euro area ample by all plausible measures. Therefore, looking ahead, acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted. The Governing Council will monitor very closely all developments so that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise.

Turning first to the economic analysis, according to Eurostat's first estimate, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP in the euro area for the third quarter of 2006 was 0.5%. The data thus confirm our assessment that economic activity continued to expand robustly, while moderating from the very strong rates seen in the first half of the year. Domestic demand remained the main driver of economic growth in the third quarter, confirming the anticipated broadening of the recovery and pointing to the increasingly self-sustaining nature of economic expansion in the euro area. The information on economic activity from various confidence surveys and indicator-based estimates supports the assessment that robust economic growth has continued in the fourth quarter of this year.

Looking ahead, the conditions remain in place for the euro area economy to grow at solid rates around potential. While some volatility in the quarterly growth rates is likely to emerge around the turn of the year, associated with the impact of changes in indirect taxes in a large euro area country, the medium- term outlook for economic activity remains favourable. As regards the external environment, economic growth has become more balanced across regions. Helped in part by lower oil prices, global growth is robust, thereby providing support for euro area exports. Domestic demand in the euro area is expected to maintain its relatively strong momentum. Investment should remain dynamic, benefiting from an extended period of very favourable financing conditions, balance sheet restructuring, accumulated and ongoing strong earnings, and gains in business efficiency. Consumption should also strengthen further over time, in line with developments in real disposable income, as employment conditions continue to improve.

This outlook is also reflected in the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. The projections foresee average annual real GDP growth in a range between 2.5% and 2.9% in 2006, between 1.7% and 2.7% in 2007 and between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2008. Most recent forecasts by international organisations give a broadly similar picture. In comparison with the September ECB staff projections, the ranges projected for real GDP growth in 2006 and 2007 have been revised upwards, largely reflecting the assumption of lower energy prices and their impact on real disposable income.

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Die Stellungnahme von EZB-Präsident Trichet im Wortlaut

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