Dokumentation: Trichets „Introductory statement“

Trotz der anhaltenden Finanzmarktkrise und des Euro-Höhenflugs ist in der europäischen Währungsunion keine Zinssenkung in Sicht. Wegen der historisch hohen Inflation hält die EZB niedrigere Zinsen noch nicht für vertretbar und stemmt sich gegen entsprechende Forderungen von Gewerkschaften und Politikern. Wie EZB-Trichet dies genau begründet: Sein traditionelles „Introductory statement“ im Wortlaut.

„Ladies and gentlemen,

the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. Let me report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by Commissioner Almunia.

On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today’s meeting to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The latest information has confirmed the existence of strong short-term upward pressure on inflation. In fact, we are experiencing a rather protracted period of temporarily high annual rates of inflation, resulting mainly from increases in energy and food prices. The latest information also clearly confirms our assessment of prevailing upside risks to price stability over the medium term, in a context of continuing very vigorous money and credit growth. The economic fundamentals of the euro area are sound. Incoming macroeconomic data continue to point to moderate but ongoing real GDP growth. However, the level of uncertainty resulting from the turmoil in financial markets remains unusually high and tensions may last longer than initially expected. Against this background, we emphasise that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective in accordance with our mandate. The firm anchoring of medium to longer-term inflation expectations is of the highest priority to the Governing Council and there is certainly no room for complacency in this regard. We believe that the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving our objective. The Governing Council remains strongly committed to preventing second-round effects and the materialisation of upside risks to price stability over the medium term. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the coming weeks.

Allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.

According to Eurostat’s second estimate, quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was 0.4%, following 0.7% in the previous quarter. The latest information on economic activity also underpins previous expectations of moderate but ongoing growth in the first quarter of 2008. Overall, the euro area economy has sound fundamentals and does not suffer from major imbalances.

Looking ahead, both domestic and foreign demand are expected to support ongoing real GDP growth in the euro area in 2008, albeit to a lesser extent than during 2007. While moderating, growth in the world economy is expected to remain resilient, benefiting in particular from strong growth in emerging economies. This should continue to support euro area external demand. Meanwhile, investment growth in the euro area should provide ongoing support to economic activity, as capacity utilisation is high, profitability has been sustained and there are no significant signs of supply constraints on bank loans. At the same time, as a result of the improved economic conditions and wage moderation, employment and labour force participation have increased significantly and unemployment rates have fallen to levels not seen for 25 years. While being dampened by the impact of higher energy and food prices on purchasing power, consumption growth should continue to contribute to economic expansion, in line with real disposable income growth.

The uncertainty surrounding this outlook for economic growth remains high, and downside risks prevail. The risks relate mainly to the financial market turbulence, which could last longer than initially thought and could have a broader than currently expected impact on the real economy. Moreover, downside risks also stem from the dampening impact on consumption and investment of further unanticipated increases in energy and food prices, as well as from protectionist pressures and the possibility of disorderly developments owing to global imbalances.

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Dokumentation: Trichets „Introductory statement“

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