Shadow ECB
Council urges ECB to cut rates aggressively

At the meeting of the Shadow ECB Council on 25 April, 2013, a majority of eight members recommended a cut of the ECB’s main refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 0.25 per cent.
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Frankfurt am MainFive favoured a quarter point cut to 0.5 per cent. Two members argued in favour of unchanged rates. Most members see a need for the ECB to go beyond cutting rates and embrace more aggressive and unconventional measures to kick-start bank lending and to get the economy out of recession.

 

GDP expected to barely recover to 2011-levels by 2014

Members further reduced their forecasts for growth and inflation this year and next. After a decline of 0.5 per cent in 2012 and 0.4 per cent in 2013 members on average expect 0.8 per cent GDP growth in 2014, barely taking the economy back to the level of 2011. Inflation is expected to fall to 1.7 per cent this year and further to 1.6 per cent in 2014. These changes bring the average forecasts of the Shadow Council roughly in line with ECB staff projections published in  March.

 

Shadow Council macroeconomic forecasts (Forecast means in %, previous forecasts in brackets)

 HICP-InflationGDP-Growth
20122.5-0,5
20131.7  (1.8)-0.4  (-0.2)
20141.6  (1.7)0.8 (1.0)

 Contributors: M. Annunziata, M. Balmaseda; E. Bartsch; S. Broyer; J. Cailloux; J. Callow; E. Chaney, M. Diron, J. Krämer, E. Nielsen, J.-M. Six

 

Rates near zero and more aggressive measures needed

In light of the record level of unemployment in many countries and in the euro area as a whole, the decline of  inflation, which is projected to continue, and an expected second year of shrinking euro area GDP, a very large majority (13 out of 15) favoured a cut of the Main Refinancing Rate, which the ECB last lowered to 0.75 per cent in July 2012. A majority of eight members argued for a large rate cut of half a percentage point.

Several members made the point that the deposit rate, currently at zero, should not be lowered with the main refinancing rate. They argued, the narrowing of the spread between the two rates would reduce the disadvantage of banks in troubled countries, which have to borrow at the main refinancing rate, while stronger banks can borrow at money market rates, which tend to be close to the deposit rate.

Two members said rates should be left unchanged. One of these argued that there was no empirical evidence that a rate cut would reliably promote growth. This member argued that the important thing was to revive bank lending, which could not be done by lowering rates. Another member argued in favour of unchanged rates on the grounds that a prolonged period of abnormally low rates was distorting economic incentives.

However, even most of those members who advocated a rate cut did not expect it to result in a large impact on bank credit and on the economy. Many members therefore urged the ECB to consider more aggressive and innovative measures to kick-start depressed bank lending. One such measure which received considerable support was to offer a five-year Long Term Refinancing Operation and make it conditional on the provision of credit to small and medium enterprises, as these were considered to be severely credit constrained in a number of countries. The objection was raised, however, that a similar program of the Bank of England was not very successful.

 

Members’ individual votes:

MemberAffiliationRate recommendation 
José AlzolaThe Observatory Groupcut 0.25% 
Marco AnnunziataGeneral Electriccut 0.5% 
Manuel BalmasedaCEMEXcut 0.25% 
Elga BartschMorgan Stanleycut 0.25% 
Andrew BosomworthPimcocut 0.5% 
Sylvain BroyerNatixiscut 0.5% 
Jacques CaillouxNomuracut 0.5% 
Julian CallowBarclays Capitalcut 0,5% 
Eric ChaneyAxacut 0.5% 
Janet HenryHSBCcut 0.25% 
Merijn KnibbeWageningen Universitycut 0.5% 
Jörg KrämerCommerzbankunchanged 
Erik NielsenUnicreditcut 0.5% 
Jean-Michel SixStandard & Poor's Cut 0,25% 
Richard WernerUniversity Southamptonunchanged 

 

Frankfurt, 26 April, 2013

Norbert Häring

Non-voting Chair of the Shadow ECB Council

Seite 1:

Council urges ECB to cut rates aggressively

Seite 2:

Background information

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  • Vielleicht sollte der "Schattenrat" in seinem Konferenzraum eine Lampe anmachen, damit diesen Herren auch ein Licht aufgeht. Ob 0 oder 0,75% Zins ist doch völlig egal, solange das Geld sowieso nicht in der Realwirtschaft ankommt.

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