ECB Shadow Council

The ECB Shadow Council provides a forum for the discussion of all issues related to monetary policy in the Eurozone. By making the results of their deliberations public, the members of the Shadow Council are aiming to contribute to and stimulate the public discussion of the goals, options and framework of monetary policy.

Latest Meetings

ECB Shadow Council recommends rate cut to 0.5%  Artikel in Merkliste

26.06.2009

At the regular meeting of the ECB Shadow Council held on Thursday 25 June, there was a slim majority in favour of lowering the ECB's refinancing rate by 50 basis points, thus concluding that rates are not appropriate at the current level of 1 %. Seven of the 15 members said rates should be left unchanged, two more than a month ago. One member advocated a cut by 75 basis points. When the vote was taken, a majority of eight settled on the recommendation of a cut by 50 basis points to 0.5 %. Artikel


ECB Shadow Council discusses the need to provide further stimulus  Artikel in Merkliste

22.06.2009

In preparation of the monthly meeting members debate the pros and cons of resuming the easing cycle. Artikel

ECB Shadow Council says rates are not appropriate  Artikel in Merkliste

29.05.2009

At the regular meeting of the ECB Shadow Council held on Thursday 28 May, there was a two-thirds majority in favour of lowering the ECB's refinancing rate at the next policy meeting on June 4, thus concluding that rates are not appropriate at the current level. Five of the 15 members said rates should be left unchanged. Five expressed a preference for a small rate cut to 0.75 %, the remaining five argued in favour of a cut to 0.5 %. When the vote was taken, a majority settled on the recommendation of a cut by 25 basis points to 0.75 %. Artikel

ECB ShadowCouncil on the pros and cons of cutting rates further  Artikel in Merkliste

25.05.2009

Are the latest signs that the worst might be over for the economy of the euro area enough of a reason to end the cycle of easing rates? Monthly pre-meeting discussion of the ECB Shadow Council Artikel

ECB Shadow Council sees no reason to set a rate floor of 1%  Artikel in Merkliste

01.05.2009

At the regular meeting of the ECB Shadow Council held on Thursday 30 March, there was a large majority in favour of lowering the ECB's refinancing rate below 1 %..Only two members sided with ECB officials who have recently stressed that 1 % should be the floor of the policy rate in order to preserve the functioning of the money market. Of the 15 members, one argued in favour of a cut by 100 basis points to 0.25 %, five were in favour of a cut by 75 basis points to 0.5 % and seven in favour of a cut by 50 basis points to 0.75 %.The remaining two members advocated a cut of 25 basis points to 1 %. Artikel

ECB Shadow Council discusses the scope for going below one percent and need for outright quantitative easing  Artikel in Merkliste

27.04.2009

The other G10 central banks have slashed their key rates to 0.5 percent and below. The ECB seems to want to stop at 1 percent. For good reasons? Artikel

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WACHSTUMSPROGNOSEN

Deutschlanddie Wachstumsprognosen für Euro-Zonedie Wachstumsprognosen für USAdie Wachstumsprognosen für Japan

Veränderung des realen BIP zum Vorjahr in %

WACHSTUMSPROGNOSEN DEUTSCHLAND

2010 2009
Consensus Economics 0,4 -5,8
OECD 0,2 -6,1
EU-Kommission 0,3 -5,4
Bundesregierung 0,5 -6,0
Frühjahrsgutachten der Institute -0,5 -6,0
IWF -0,6 -6,2
Sachverständigenrat 0